Understanding the Housing Market
BuWiz.CoM:
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Consider the following two cycles of median home prices. The first, from 1983 to 1996, started with the economy in rough shape. Then an economic boom pulled real estate and the DOW way up. It was a big party, everyone was making money, and then banks got a little crazy with their lending standards and the whole thing went off the rails–stock market crash, massive bank failure, real estate market correction and a serious recession. (Does any of this sound familiar?)
(Median home values over 13 years)The cycle reset in 1997, and a very similar pattern started again. This cycle is not finished yet, but the plateau is almost here.
(Median home values over 12 years)I expect values to hit bottom in 2010 and stay flat for five years, only to go back up significantly when tax-cutting becomes the policy and the economy booms again.So there is good news, better news and great news. The good news is it’s pre-boom all over again. The better news is you are aware of it at a very early point, and the best news is you have plenty of time to get your assets in gear and take a position.I recommend that you visit www.zillow.com, use its “Local Info” tab to drill into your area, and choose “Home Values.” Researching a market you know well is probably the best place to start. Make sure you change the setting on the charts to “Sale Price” and “10 years.” Then you will see your market in context. I recommend you do this exercise before continuing . . .So you’ve seen the graphic. Now ask yourself, was there a meltdown here, or did this market end up the cycle much higher than it began?Here’s the first proof that you can’t believe all the pundits who called this a housing freefall. This was a very profitable real estate cycle that made a lot of people a lot of money. Sure, many investors got hurt in this cycle, but most of them ignored the fundamentals and tried to buy and flip with no money down. That’s a sucker’s bet in real estate.Take a look at your business plan; ownership can enhance stability, channel your rental expense into equity building and enable you to take advantage of the tax benefits of ownership. It’s time to work real estate into your long-term plan; you already have two very strong advantages–a long-term view and a well-timed cycle.
Greg Rand is a 20-year real estate industry leader and Managing Partner at Better Homes and Gardens Rand Realty. As a foremost authority on housing patterns and emerging trends he predicted the debilitating housing crisis. Rand believes that real estate investing is not for fair-weather real estate speculators and he attains widespread viewership as a regular FOX TV news contributor. You can find Greg’s advice on his popular blog House Rich.
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